May 22, 2003

Policy Process - slight return

The figure from yesterday is kind of a joke. The joke has to do with the reduction of policy to a single instruction - "weigh all factors". Compare the following figures from Morgan and Henrion (1990):

Less Real

More Real

Morgan, M.G., M. Henrion, and M. Small, Uncertainty: a guide to dealing with uncertainty in quantitative risk and policy analysis, 332 pp., Cambridge University Press, New York, 1990.