In a recent article in Wired Bruce Sterling comments on the role that social networks might play in the evaluation of impact and the identification of funding partners. A couple of points from that article:
He notes that "Allocating money for scientific research has always been highly problematic. Science just doesn't sit still for the usual forms of cost-benefit analysis..." and then goes on to postulate that social network maps of citations and peer review can provide a proxy for the all elusive impact. He then leaves us with an unfinished discussion of a scenario in which the scientist in the middle of a strong network is funded while his (gender assignment is mine, read into it what you will) less connected colleague is left unfunded.
My initial reaction is "great - now we can really reinforce the middle of the road". A number of pernicious assumptions underlie this analysis:
First - there is the assumption that past performance is a good indicator of future performance. This is self-fullfilling.
Second, and perhaps related - there is an implicit assumption that new ideas will come from well established sources (individuals?...)
Third - there is an implicit assumption that citations and peer review are good proxies...
I was attracted to the article for another reason - I am trying to fund new ideas. Can I use social networks to find new sources of funding. What is the map I need to connect my ideas with funding sources?...
November 02, 2004
Slight returns - Oct 04
Gravity Switches
A psycotherapist I know suggested an interesting interpreation of the gravity switches. He noted that is the deep psychology of teams and systems, the orientation of those switches might reflect some of the less pretty dynamics of the relationships between scientists and engineers. That is the fact that those switches were installed backwards can be seen as a retribution for real and percieved slights that accumulate over time. It is very important to recognize that this is not a conscious act, but an act that in some emotional / psycological sense "comes to be".Science and Politics
Hansen did indeed make his speech and the NYT refered to it in an editorial recently. One of the things that I admire about Jim is that he really does give deep thought to the impact of the things that he and his group learn and to the responsibility that he has as an expert. I argue with myself about whether his actions are naive or brilliant, but I have no doubt that he is honest in his science and earnest in his intentions.The current (and let us hope, lame duck) administration has been rightly and widely berated for distancing itself from well grounded scientific advice. What scares me more than that stance is the anti-intellectualism that it reflects. Again the role of unthinking Christian faith has been well documented. The unthinking part makes it hard to even engage in discussion, but thickheadedness does not change the fact that, despite human intervention, physical and biological systems continue to function in some Simon-esque natural way.
All of this returns me to my theme that we need to continue to agressively develop institutions that bridge the gap between the ivory tower and the hollowed halls. We need to train scientists who can both describe their work and its relevance in terms that can be widely understood and can understand the Truth to Power is overly simple. Similarly we need to ensure that decision-makers across the spectrum have both access to relevant scientific understanding and capacity to relate that understanding to the myriad tradeoffs they juggle.
Baseball
Turns out the Red Sox won 8 straight to sweep the World Series after falling in a 3-0 hole in the ALCS. Digging out of the hole was a never-before. 8 straight is a never before as well. The question now is what will happen in New England now that the Curse of the Bambino has been broken. Some predict that with nothing left to live for, many Red Sox fans will simply give up the ghost. Others have predicted social and economic collapse with the loss of the uniting force of "next year". Still others see the dawning of a new and brighter era with the victory presaging a new dawn in American politics. Next year will tell....
October 26, 2004
Hansen speaks out, again
During the very hot summer of 1988 James Hansen, Director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) sat before a panel of members of Congress and announced, with the authority of his position, that global warming had arrived. By that time Hansen, who is one of our planet's leading climate scientists, was convinced that the trend in our planet's average temperature was up and that Human activity was at least part of the issue. He understood that there were uncertainties, but in his estimation, they were small enough to warrant his confidence. In many ways that testimony launched the global warming debate continues to hog tie political action on this front.
Hansen's team at GISS has been working on the details of how Earth's climate system responds to changes in the amount of heat it holds and to changes in how that heat is distributed in space. He is a careful scientist and I pay close attention to what he says. He is not always easy to understand, but he does appreciate his responsibilty as a scientist to communicate what he knows.
He is about to do something that could make another splash.
Andrew Revkin reports in today's NYT that Jim Hansen is going to make a speach tonight at the University of Iowa in which he will reiterate the importance of coming to terms with climate change, argue that the Bush administration is at best dragging their feet with respect to what the US could and should be doing, and most dramatically, he plans to claim that the Administrator at NASA told him not to talk about the impacts of human activities on the climate system.
Hansen's actions stir up a huge number of questions. The ones that jump to mind first are:
In the past I have had to manage bits and pieces of the relationship beween Columbia and GISS. I know that Hansen and his team can be loose cannons. I don't have an answer to whether what he about to do it a good thing or a bad thing. I do wonder whether Hansen is politcally astute or politically naive.
This issue deserves alot more attention - I will have to come back to it later...
Hansen's team at GISS has been working on the details of how Earth's climate system responds to changes in the amount of heat it holds and to changes in how that heat is distributed in space. He is a careful scientist and I pay close attention to what he says. He is not always easy to understand, but he does appreciate his responsibilty as a scientist to communicate what he knows.
He is about to do something that could make another splash.
Andrew Revkin reports in today's NYT that Jim Hansen is going to make a speach tonight at the University of Iowa in which he will reiterate the importance of coming to terms with climate change, argue that the Bush administration is at best dragging their feet with respect to what the US could and should be doing, and most dramatically, he plans to claim that the Administrator at NASA told him not to talk about the impacts of human activities on the climate system.
Hansen's actions stir up a huge number of questions. The ones that jump to mind first are:
- Is the "don't talk about it" bit of his story true?
- There is a he said, she said element to the story. Of course NASA leadership deny that they told one of their leading scientists not to talk about bits of his work that are politically sensitive. But in some ways that doesn't matter; if Hansen thinks that he has been instructed not to talk about his work, notions of academic freedom have been trampled upon. But that too puts us on shifting sand. What if Hansen is overly sensitive? I believe NASA's rejoinder along the lines "we never told him not to do the work" but that leaves unsaid "we just told him not to talk about it." etc.
- What is the proper relationship between science and politics?
- Many (most) scientists would like to think that their science is politically neutral. And perhaps it is on a day to day basis. But the overall distribution of the kinds of science we do and the distribution of the benefits, and losses, is a political decision.
In the past I have had to manage bits and pieces of the relationship beween Columbia and GISS. I know that Hansen and his team can be loose cannons. I don't have an answer to whether what he about to do it a good thing or a bad thing. I do wonder whether Hansen is politcally astute or politically naive.
- Evidence of the former,
- How is it that Revkin is writing about a speach that Hansen is planning to give at the University of Iowa this evening?
- Evidence of the latter,
- Did he really think that people would read the black soot stuff closely enough to correctly understand its implications?
This issue deserves alot more attention - I will have to come back to it later...
October 24, 2004
Scientific and Engineering Failure
Not long ago, the Genesis spacecraft came tumbling back to Earth. It didn't go entirely as planned:
Everything had gone pretty well up to that point, but the dramatic "Catch by the Hollywood Stuntmen" failed, not because they missed, but because the parachutes on the spacecraft failed to open. The impact shattered the somewhat delicate plates that had been sieving the voids of space for the last few years.
The question immediately became, "Was the mission a success or a failure?" That question is followed immediately, at least in my mind, by questions of what would determine success. My first cut analysis would be the following. 1) a clear engineering failure; 2) based on the apparent success at recovering samples from the shattered plates, a likely scientific success.
But that is an overly simple analysis. First of all, with the exception of the last little bit, the spacecraft performed quite well. It spent three years following a wierd path through the solar system. It deployed its sampling mechanisms and collected about 10e20 ions, that is individual atoms, bits of matter, that have been spit out of the sun. Not bad really.
Things went wrong on the engineering front with re-entry. And at the time of this writing it looks as if the problem was that the switches that were meant to deploy the parachutes were installed backwards (this interpretation from The Economist, a more official report blames "a design error that involves the orientation of gravity-switch devices"). (Nature also reported on the switch problem...).
Success of the science mission depends upon the ability of scientists to extract new understanding of our solar system from the samples that the spacecraft collected. The Hollywood Stuntmen that were supposed to catch the spacecraft by the parachute were employed because there was great concern that the thing not crash into the ground because of the fragility of the sampling plates. So things didn't look good for scientific success at first. It now appears that samples will be able to be recovered, identified and useful.
So now I would summarize as follows: 1) with the exception of the parachute bit, which clearly was a cock-up, the engineering was pretty good; 2) the science also looks like it is going to tell us something along the lines of what was proposed years ago.
But both of those are hedges, to the Real Question, which is - Was the Genesis Mission a success? And despite the basically happy endings, I would argue that in important ways (beyond the parachutes), the mission failed. It seems to me that "parachutes fail to open" is an obvious late stage scenario. And the importance of considering this option is highlighted by the initial despair on the part of the scientific team. How is it that such an obvious possibility with such a disasterous implication relied on the correct installation of nearly symmetric switch the size of a pencil eraser with no backup?
My guess is that the scientists and the engineers weren't talking to each other as much as they should have been. And that is the real failure of the mission. Despite the decent recover on the part of the science team.
Aside
A bit more on the ALCS series. The "post-season" modifier is indeed irrelevant. Going 4 straight to win a best of 7 series has only happened on two other occaisions in professional sports, both in hockey (now isn't that interesting, are the statistics of hockey streaks different than baseball?).
End
Everything had gone pretty well up to that point, but the dramatic "Catch by the Hollywood Stuntmen" failed, not because they missed, but because the parachutes on the spacecraft failed to open. The impact shattered the somewhat delicate plates that had been sieving the voids of space for the last few years.
The question immediately became, "Was the mission a success or a failure?" That question is followed immediately, at least in my mind, by questions of what would determine success. My first cut analysis would be the following. 1) a clear engineering failure; 2) based on the apparent success at recovering samples from the shattered plates, a likely scientific success.
But that is an overly simple analysis. First of all, with the exception of the last little bit, the spacecraft performed quite well. It spent three years following a wierd path through the solar system. It deployed its sampling mechanisms and collected about 10e20 ions, that is individual atoms, bits of matter, that have been spit out of the sun. Not bad really.
Things went wrong on the engineering front with re-entry. And at the time of this writing it looks as if the problem was that the switches that were meant to deploy the parachutes were installed backwards (this interpretation from The Economist, a more official report blames "a design error that involves the orientation of gravity-switch devices"). (Nature also reported on the switch problem...).
Success of the science mission depends upon the ability of scientists to extract new understanding of our solar system from the samples that the spacecraft collected. The Hollywood Stuntmen that were supposed to catch the spacecraft by the parachute were employed because there was great concern that the thing not crash into the ground because of the fragility of the sampling plates. So things didn't look good for scientific success at first. It now appears that samples will be able to be recovered, identified and useful.
So now I would summarize as follows: 1) with the exception of the parachute bit, which clearly was a cock-up, the engineering was pretty good; 2) the science also looks like it is going to tell us something along the lines of what was proposed years ago.
But both of those are hedges, to the Real Question, which is - Was the Genesis Mission a success? And despite the basically happy endings, I would argue that in important ways (beyond the parachutes), the mission failed. It seems to me that "parachutes fail to open" is an obvious late stage scenario. And the importance of considering this option is highlighted by the initial despair on the part of the scientific team. How is it that such an obvious possibility with such a disasterous implication relied on the correct installation of nearly symmetric switch the size of a pencil eraser with no backup?
My guess is that the scientists and the engineers weren't talking to each other as much as they should have been. And that is the real failure of the mission. Despite the decent recover on the part of the science team.
Aside
A bit more on the ALCS series. The "post-season" modifier is indeed irrelevant. Going 4 straight to win a best of 7 series has only happened on two other occaisions in professional sports, both in hockey (now isn't that interesting, are the statistics of hockey streaks different than baseball?).
End
October 21, 2004
Naive thoughts on Baseball
It turns out that there are a fair number of Red Sox fans in my neighborhood. I know becuase I could hear them cheering tonight. The last time I remember such an auditory signal with respect to a sporting event was when the Giants won the Super Bowl, whenever that was. The time before that was when NC State won the NCAA championship sometime in the mid-1980s (note that at that time I lived in Raleigh, not NYC).
For those of you who don't know, I live in Washington Heights in Manhattan. As I did until tonight, you might expect this to be a Yankees bastion but note: 1) the region of NYC that I live in has the largest Dominican population outside of Republica Dominica; 2) in thanking the fans of the Red Sox Nation, one of the executives listed places, Boston, California and the Dominican Republic; 3) Manny Rameriz grew up not too far from where I live (in NYC terms, "not too far" is measured in city blocks); 4) Pedro Martinez is also from the DR...
Perhaps more to the point with respect to this blog, the Red Sox completed tonight what no team in baseball has been able to do in post-season history, recover from being 3 games down in a 7 game series. Baseball being a game of statistics, I am wondering about this fact.
First of all, does the "post-season" history modifier matter. Are there examples in baseball history of teams going 4 straight to win a 7 game series in the regular season? I expect not, primarily because teams don't (rarely?) play 7 games in a row in the regular season.
Second of all, what are the statistics of baseball streaks like? Are they uncorrellated like coin tosses. Think about this, 3 consecutive coin tosses have yielded heads, what is the probablity that the next toss will be heads? (see A1 below). In baseball terms this would mean that the likelihood of winning and particular game is independent of whether you won or lost the previous game. It also means that the chances of a streak of length N is 1/2eN, so in an uncorrellated baseball universe the chances of winning 4 straight would be 1/16, not all that long odds in a sport that has a history of more than a century.
ahh but, that is more like the likelihood of sweep, doesn't the fact that the long suffering underdogs have lost 3 in a row (1/8 in a purely random world) have anything to do with it? I would say yes - it does suggest that the coin may be biased. That is that the chances of tails on the next toss are better than 50 - 50, in which case the odds of 4 in a row go down pretty fast. (if in fact after 3 games the odds are 75 -25, then the likelihood of 4 in a row is like 1/64).
Alternatively what if the chances of winning the next game depends on the outcome of the previous game. Statistics like that have a name that I can't drag up at the moment and I certainly can't write down. It opens a can of worms as well. If you won the last game is it more or less likely that you will win the next game? If you have won the previous 3 games what is the likelihood? The cool thing about baseball is that if you had the time and inclination, you could figure all this out. (If you do please let me know! I have the inclination, but not the time.)
The Red Sox and the Yankees are incredibly evenly matched these days. They had the two best records in the American League this year. That is the second place team in the American League East (Boston) had a better record than the winning teams in the other two divisions. Before tonight they had played each other 50 times in recent history and each won 25 games. The difference in their run scoring was 2 (I am quoting Tyler Kepner of the NYTimes (sorry can't be bothered with the link tonight) - Tyler didn't say which way it went, but given that fact and his allegiance, I am guessing it was advantage Boston.
OK - it is late, I am out of gas. Any thoughts on the probablity that the Red Sox will win the World Series?
Aside
A1 - 50%
End
For those of you who don't know, I live in Washington Heights in Manhattan. As I did until tonight, you might expect this to be a Yankees bastion but note: 1) the region of NYC that I live in has the largest Dominican population outside of Republica Dominica; 2) in thanking the fans of the Red Sox Nation, one of the executives listed places, Boston, California and the Dominican Republic; 3) Manny Rameriz grew up not too far from where I live (in NYC terms, "not too far" is measured in city blocks); 4) Pedro Martinez is also from the DR...
Perhaps more to the point with respect to this blog, the Red Sox completed tonight what no team in baseball has been able to do in post-season history, recover from being 3 games down in a 7 game series. Baseball being a game of statistics, I am wondering about this fact.
First of all, does the "post-season" history modifier matter. Are there examples in baseball history of teams going 4 straight to win a 7 game series in the regular season? I expect not, primarily because teams don't (rarely?) play 7 games in a row in the regular season.
Second of all, what are the statistics of baseball streaks like? Are they uncorrellated like coin tosses. Think about this, 3 consecutive coin tosses have yielded heads, what is the probablity that the next toss will be heads? (see A1 below). In baseball terms this would mean that the likelihood of winning and particular game is independent of whether you won or lost the previous game. It also means that the chances of a streak of length N is 1/2eN, so in an uncorrellated baseball universe the chances of winning 4 straight would be 1/16, not all that long odds in a sport that has a history of more than a century.
ahh but, that is more like the likelihood of sweep, doesn't the fact that the long suffering underdogs have lost 3 in a row (1/8 in a purely random world) have anything to do with it? I would say yes - it does suggest that the coin may be biased. That is that the chances of tails on the next toss are better than 50 - 50, in which case the odds of 4 in a row go down pretty fast. (if in fact after 3 games the odds are 75 -25, then the likelihood of 4 in a row is like 1/64).
Alternatively what if the chances of winning the next game depends on the outcome of the previous game. Statistics like that have a name that I can't drag up at the moment and I certainly can't write down. It opens a can of worms as well. If you won the last game is it more or less likely that you will win the next game? If you have won the previous 3 games what is the likelihood? The cool thing about baseball is that if you had the time and inclination, you could figure all this out. (If you do please let me know! I have the inclination, but not the time.)
The Red Sox and the Yankees are incredibly evenly matched these days. They had the two best records in the American League this year. That is the second place team in the American League East (Boston) had a better record than the winning teams in the other two divisions. Before tonight they had played each other 50 times in recent history and each won 25 games. The difference in their run scoring was 2 (I am quoting Tyler Kepner of the NYTimes (sorry can't be bothered with the link tonight) - Tyler didn't say which way it went, but given that fact and his allegiance, I am guessing it was advantage Boston.
OK - it is late, I am out of gas. Any thoughts on the probablity that the Red Sox will win the World Series?
Aside
A1 - 50%
End
October 15, 2004
Hydrogen economy
I think that I have written about the likelihood that we will burn a whole bunch of coal in the future, but if I have I can't find the post. Maybe it was in my forthcoming Energy & Environment piece (a link to that when it is available).
Anyway - one of the things that is often not mentioned, but that is increasinly recognized, is that you have to make the hydrogen and that takes energy and that energy has to come from somewhere. And then we are back to coal. Unless we can do it with renewables...
Nature reports a recent article that argues that wind power will be insufficient to provide all of the hydrogen that a fully developed hydrogen economy will require. Rather than an argument against moving toward hydrogen, I take this an argument for the development of "clean coal" technologies.
Aside
I also suspect that nuclear is in our future, but my long-standing concerns about waste continue. Again I take this as a positive argument for continued effort to solve that problem.
End
Anyway - one of the things that is often not mentioned, but that is increasinly recognized, is that you have to make the hydrogen and that takes energy and that energy has to come from somewhere. And then we are back to coal. Unless we can do it with renewables...
Nature reports a recent article that argues that wind power will be insufficient to provide all of the hydrogen that a fully developed hydrogen economy will require. Rather than an argument against moving toward hydrogen, I take this an argument for the development of "clean coal" technologies.
Aside
I also suspect that nuclear is in our future, but my long-standing concerns about waste continue. Again I take this as a positive argument for continued effort to solve that problem.
End
Big Change at NSF
For years (since around 1940) the NSF has often required cost sharing on projects that it has funded. This was especially true for projects that bought equipment. That requirement has now been all but eliminated.
This is important because it removes a bias against smaller institutions. Equipment proposals are often large and hence the matching portion would be large. This has prevented less well off institutions from competing for important Federal funds and over the long-haul would limit the frontier across which we can advance our understanding.
There is a caveat of course. Another implication is that because NSF must now fund all of its projects, it will be able to fund a smaller number of them and thus the competition for limited funds will become more intense, but it still provides an opening for high quality efforts from smaller institituions.
A final caveat is that this move also frees up a pretty good chunk of discretionary money at larger institutions. How will that money now be used?...
Aside
If the link above has expired and you are a Chronicle subscriber, the article can be found here. If you are not a subscriber, contact me and I will get you the text...
End
This is important because it removes a bias against smaller institutions. Equipment proposals are often large and hence the matching portion would be large. This has prevented less well off institutions from competing for important Federal funds and over the long-haul would limit the frontier across which we can advance our understanding.
There is a caveat of course. Another implication is that because NSF must now fund all of its projects, it will be able to fund a smaller number of them and thus the competition for limited funds will become more intense, but it still provides an opening for high quality efforts from smaller institituions.
A final caveat is that this move also frees up a pretty good chunk of discretionary money at larger institutions. How will that money now be used?...
Aside
If the link above has expired and you are a Chronicle subscriber, the article can be found here. If you are not a subscriber, contact me and I will get you the text...
End
October 13, 2004
academic separateness
The core of university strength is its ability to produce and disseminate knowledge. Central to that strength is a set of practices that ensure that its knowledge activities meet minimum standards in quality. Quality control has evolved within the academy through the development of tenure and other review processes (e.g. committees on instruction). Our current portfolio of intellectual and practical challenges now requires that we recognize knowledge holders beyond academic institutions and whose stature is determined by processes quite different from those that colleges and universities are familiar with.
Separateness is deeply engrained in the history of academic freedom. That separateness has its origins in the clash between the theological roots of most of our colleges and universities and the rationalism that emerged in parallel with Darwinism in the mid-19th century (Metzger 1955) and that we now associate with scientific objectivity. It has been reinforced by the professionalization of academic disciplines and by feedbacks that call for communities of scholars to define expertise and to certify new members.
Against this historical backdrop, scholars are now turning attention to problems that span several traditional disciplines and, in doing so, have recognized the need for augmented norms in order to evaluate expertise and manage quality. While it is perhaps early to say that the problem has been solved within the academy, ad hoc solutions are well known and evolving.
Expertise that is quantified or recognized by metrics that have little or no overlap with academic credentials poses an as yet unsolved problem. If we are to advance our knowledge networks, we need to solve it.
Separateness is deeply engrained in the history of academic freedom. That separateness has its origins in the clash between the theological roots of most of our colleges and universities and the rationalism that emerged in parallel with Darwinism in the mid-19th century (Metzger 1955) and that we now associate with scientific objectivity. It has been reinforced by the professionalization of academic disciplines and by feedbacks that call for communities of scholars to define expertise and to certify new members.
Against this historical backdrop, scholars are now turning attention to problems that span several traditional disciplines and, in doing so, have recognized the need for augmented norms in order to evaluate expertise and manage quality. While it is perhaps early to say that the problem has been solved within the academy, ad hoc solutions are well known and evolving.
Expertise that is quantified or recognized by metrics that have little or no overlap with academic credentials poses an as yet unsolved problem. If we are to advance our knowledge networks, we need to solve it.
October 06, 2004
A bit more on Parkfield
So what was all that behind the recent Parkfield entry? Here is a bit of explanation:
Earthquake physics is very complex. I don't know how it compares in a technical sense to the complexity of the climate system or any other Earth systems. But it does give one pause as we think about trying to make decisons based on predictions.
Aside
For more on the issues surrounding prediction see Sarewitz et al. 2000
End
- Earthquakes sometimes happen on faults, but not always
- Most of the impressive earthquakes of the last few decades have happened on previously unrecognized faults. This has left some of us wondering whether the whole "earthquake fault" thing might be misconcieved. Parkfield occured on the part of the San Andreas Fault that it should have; but it was late. Or was it. As noted in the post the 1922 event might not have been on the SAF. If the 1922 event was on some other fault (unrecognized?) then the period at Parkfield looks alot more like 35 years and the recent event was right on time.
- Predicting the future is hard
- The Parkfield prediction is the only prediction that the USGS has ever made or is likely to make. They got it wrong despite the apparent simplicy of the Parkfield segment behavior. The regularity of the series is pretty striking, but whether it is regular at 22 years or 35 years is completely dependent on where the 1922 event was and that is something that we are not likely to ever be able to determine.
- Earthquake risk is risky
- All of earthquake risk thinking is based on the notion that earthquakes happen on recognized faults in ways that are similar from event to event. If you can't count on earthquakes occuring on faults that you know about, the problem is much harder.
Earthquake physics is very complex. I don't know how it compares in a technical sense to the complexity of the climate system or any other Earth systems. But it does give one pause as we think about trying to make decisons based on predictions.
Aside
For more on the issues surrounding prediction see Sarewitz et al. 2000
End
October 05, 2004
Parkfield, at last
Well it finally happened. 13 years late, but better late than never (I think).
In the early 1980s, earthquake scientist predicted that a magnitude 6.0 earthquake would occur on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault by 1993. This was based on the fact that the Parkfield segment of the SAF seemed to have failed in very similar events, at regular intervals, over the last 150 years or so. (Events occured in 1857, 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966.)
Aside
Lots of jingo in that, let me parse it a bit.
End
In response to this prediction, the Parkfield Experiment was designed and implemented. Essentially that meant that alot of instruments were installed along that segment of the fault and then we waited. I was a graduate student during the time of the window at Parkfield and it was a long slow death. It had to happen, but no one could say when.
Now it has but not as it was expected: Previous events had initiated in the North and propogated south. This one started in the south and went north. Previous events had been preceeded by a pretty good fore shock (about magnitude 5). This one had no warning. Finally there is the issue of the timing. 22 years has long been accepted as the period at Parkfield, but as Chris Scholz points out the event prior to the 1966 (the event prior to this one) occured in 1934 which is 32 years. The interval since 1966 is 38 years. Allan Lindh has suggested that the 1922 event may have occured off of the SAF; if that is so then the interval is more like 35 years since 1901.
Aside
Note that the "suggested" link above will go away by about 13 October 2004. If you are a Chronicle of Higher Education subscriber it will always be available here. If you are not a subscriber, send me email and I will get you the text.
End
In the early 1980s, earthquake scientist predicted that a magnitude 6.0 earthquake would occur on the Parkfield segment of the San Andreas fault by 1993. This was based on the fact that the Parkfield segment of the SAF seemed to have failed in very similar events, at regular intervals, over the last 150 years or so. (Events occured in 1857, 1881, 1901, 1922, 1934, and 1966.)
Aside
Lots of jingo in that, let me parse it a bit.
- "segment of the SAF"
- the San Andreas Fault is not perfectly straight and while on average the whole thing must slip at about the relative rate of slip between the North American and Pacific plates, different parts stick and slip at different times.
- "seems to"
- science waffle for "the timing isn't perfect, but it ain't bad either"
- "very similar events"
- similar events to a seismologist is one in which the same part of the fault slips about the same amount - roughly the size of the earthquake is area that slips times the amount that it slips.
End
In response to this prediction, the Parkfield Experiment was designed and implemented. Essentially that meant that alot of instruments were installed along that segment of the fault and then we waited. I was a graduate student during the time of the window at Parkfield and it was a long slow death. It had to happen, but no one could say when.
Now it has but not as it was expected: Previous events had initiated in the North and propogated south. This one started in the south and went north. Previous events had been preceeded by a pretty good fore shock (about magnitude 5). This one had no warning. Finally there is the issue of the timing. 22 years has long been accepted as the period at Parkfield, but as Chris Scholz points out the event prior to the 1966 (the event prior to this one) occured in 1934 which is 32 years. The interval since 1966 is 38 years. Allan Lindh has suggested that the 1922 event may have occured off of the SAF; if that is so then the interval is more like 35 years since 1901.
Aside
Note that the "suggested" link above will go away by about 13 October 2004. If you are a Chronicle of Higher Education subscriber it will always be available here. If you are not a subscriber, send me email and I will get you the text.
End
October 04, 2004
Road Kill
Lots of posts to write (the parkfield earthquake, the early evolution of tenure, science in the national parks, self censurship), but tonight I think I will take on a realtive short one - Road Kill.
In driving around Westchester County these days, my completely unscientific monitoring indicates that road kill is up by a bunch. I am pretty sure I saw a coyote (not wylie enough) by the Taconic on Saturday as well as a hawk (rather ruffled) further up the road. Mostly though it has been an increase in the number of racoons (big ones) and squirrels. (I hit a possum a week or so ago, my first known kill.) Haven't seen many dead skunks in the middle of the road or elsewhere for that matter.
So the question is - Why the increase? Is it seasonal? (I think yes). My guess (yes it is a guess, not an estimate) is that it has to do with increased foraging activity in preparation for the coming winter. It would be easy to explain my not having observed this before because I didn't have a girlfriend that lived in the country before this year. (well that depends on how you count - I was working on having one last year at this time, but we hadn't gotten to the point where I could make observatons about road kill).
A few other observations on the megafauna upstate. There are a lot of deer! They are bold, but 9-14 year old girls don't like me to throw rocks at them to send them out of the yard; however, they will volunteer to chase them. There are reports of black bears - they have definitely returned to Black Rock Forest. I expect it was wolves that kept the deer in check and they are definitely not prowling the backyards of Westchester County. I have heard coyotes in the dusk.
I don't really know what to think about what would amount to the predator / prey relations of an ecosystem such as Westchester, especially the lands surrounding the reservior system. It certainly looks to me like automobiles are a postive factor with respect to controlling the vermin population. I doubt that they are enough of a factor to replace whatever other predators might have done, but I really don't know. With respect to the deer, a top predator is definitely needed. Humans could be that too, but the 9-14yo girl factor is a real problem.
Aside
Zora is completely saturated with my scientific lessons (although she was intrigued when I suggested I could show her how to make up data; but then lost interest when I started adding error to our invented points) - so I am having to really bite my tonge with respect to her assigned evaporation experiment. I haven't discussed road kill with her.
End
In driving around Westchester County these days, my completely unscientific monitoring indicates that road kill is up by a bunch. I am pretty sure I saw a coyote (not wylie enough) by the Taconic on Saturday as well as a hawk (rather ruffled) further up the road. Mostly though it has been an increase in the number of racoons (big ones) and squirrels. (I hit a possum a week or so ago, my first known kill.) Haven't seen many dead skunks in the middle of the road or elsewhere for that matter.
So the question is - Why the increase? Is it seasonal? (I think yes). My guess (yes it is a guess, not an estimate) is that it has to do with increased foraging activity in preparation for the coming winter. It would be easy to explain my not having observed this before because I didn't have a girlfriend that lived in the country before this year. (well that depends on how you count - I was working on having one last year at this time, but we hadn't gotten to the point where I could make observatons about road kill).
A few other observations on the megafauna upstate. There are a lot of deer! They are bold, but 9-14 year old girls don't like me to throw rocks at them to send them out of the yard; however, they will volunteer to chase them. There are reports of black bears - they have definitely returned to Black Rock Forest. I expect it was wolves that kept the deer in check and they are definitely not prowling the backyards of Westchester County. I have heard coyotes in the dusk.
I don't really know what to think about what would amount to the predator / prey relations of an ecosystem such as Westchester, especially the lands surrounding the reservior system. It certainly looks to me like automobiles are a postive factor with respect to controlling the vermin population. I doubt that they are enough of a factor to replace whatever other predators might have done, but I really don't know. With respect to the deer, a top predator is definitely needed. Humans could be that too, but the 9-14yo girl factor is a real problem.
Aside
Zora is completely saturated with my scientific lessons (although she was intrigued when I suggested I could show her how to make up data; but then lost interest when I started adding error to our invented points) - so I am having to really bite my tonge with respect to her assigned evaporation experiment. I haven't discussed road kill with her.
End
September 24, 2004
Noise
There are lots of different kinds of noise and what is defined as noise is often a function of reference frame. In my 12 May 03, I talked about Equation 0, which relates, data, models and residuals. In that frame residuals are noise and clearly as data and models change so will what is considered noise.
HOWEVER - the noise I am talking about today is the much more common form and in my case it has to do with keeping NYC streets clean and with moving people and goods around. I live on the 6th floor of a great building in a great location with the exception that the part of Riverside Drive where I live is a fairly important (which isn't to say busy) thorough fare. One of the things that I have learned by living where I do is that alot of street level noise abatment is accomplished by aiming the offending sources upward in a way that makes my office a particularly good receptor.
Zora's favorite reference for many things of interest great interest to people her age tells me that if you have to shout to be heard that the noise level is too high. Well when the buses go by, I can't hear the TV. And when the street cleaner goes by I can't hear myself think.
Aside
I am not sure what this has to do with Earth Systems Managment; except that it is an example of noise that I can't make go away simply by understanding it.
End
HOWEVER - the noise I am talking about today is the much more common form and in my case it has to do with keeping NYC streets clean and with moving people and goods around. I live on the 6th floor of a great building in a great location with the exception that the part of Riverside Drive where I live is a fairly important (which isn't to say busy) thorough fare. One of the things that I have learned by living where I do is that alot of street level noise abatment is accomplished by aiming the offending sources upward in a way that makes my office a particularly good receptor.
Zora's favorite reference for many things of interest great interest to people her age tells me that if you have to shout to be heard that the noise level is too high. Well when the buses go by, I can't hear the TV. And when the street cleaner goes by I can't hear myself think.
Aside
I am not sure what this has to do with Earth Systems Managment; except that it is an example of noise that I can't make go away simply by understanding it.
End
September 21, 2004
Nice weather map
Nice National weather map today:
I guess I like it for its simplicity and for the beautiful line of rain that tracks the trough alont the edge of the big High that is dominating the weather in New York and over most of hte country east of the Mississippi (and a bit to the west as well). Simple cold front disolving into a stationary front as the trough between Highs kind of falls apart.
Just off the map the remains of the storm called Jeanne can be seen. That storm ran into the big high and curved around to the east and off into limbo; however it looks like it is back to hurricane strenght and projected to head back to the NW over the next few days - kind of pointed at North Carolina, but who can tell at this point.
Aside
Earlier I had threatened to write alot about the wiring of universities - have no fear those thoughts are still out there...
End
I guess I like it for its simplicity and for the beautiful line of rain that tracks the trough alont the edge of the big High that is dominating the weather in New York and over most of hte country east of the Mississippi (and a bit to the west as well). Simple cold front disolving into a stationary front as the trough between Highs kind of falls apart.
Just off the map the remains of the storm called Jeanne can be seen. That storm ran into the big high and curved around to the east and off into limbo; however it looks like it is back to hurricane strenght and projected to head back to the NW over the next few days - kind of pointed at North Carolina, but who can tell at this point.
Aside
Earlier I had threatened to write alot about the wiring of universities - have no fear those thoughts are still out there...
End
September 19, 2004
Fall is here
It is a beautiful clear and crisp day in New York City today. The overnight low dipped well into the 50's for the first time in months and there is a pretty impressive high pressure system set up to the NNw generating steady NE winds.
The point with respect to this effort is that as tumultuous as our relationship with the planet may be, the seasons continue to turn. Humans are a forceful part of the Earth System, but we haven't yet started messing with the macro elements of our orbit around the Sun. The natural part of the Earth System is still out there and will always remain so. Sometimes you just have to wonder at it.
Aside
So then how does the current situation between the Yankees and the Red Sox figure into the the Natural functioning of things. An empirical argument would suggest that Friday's outcome was but a blip, kind of like the passing of a storm, while yesturday reflected a return of the macro systems of Fall. Another interpretation which looked at the pattern of the season as a whole might suggest that, just as the state of the Atlanic ocean has changed in such a way that it will produce more and more powerful storms, Friday's result is the precursor of things to come.
Looks like a great day for baseball at The Stadium!
End
The point with respect to this effort is that as tumultuous as our relationship with the planet may be, the seasons continue to turn. Humans are a forceful part of the Earth System, but we haven't yet started messing with the macro elements of our orbit around the Sun. The natural part of the Earth System is still out there and will always remain so. Sometimes you just have to wonder at it.
Aside
So then how does the current situation between the Yankees and the Red Sox figure into the the Natural functioning of things. An empirical argument would suggest that Friday's outcome was but a blip, kind of like the passing of a storm, while yesturday reflected a return of the macro systems of Fall. Another interpretation which looked at the pattern of the season as a whole might suggest that, just as the state of the Atlanic ocean has changed in such a way that it will produce more and more powerful storms, Friday's result is the precursor of things to come.
Looks like a great day for baseball at The Stadium!
End
September 15, 2004
the cost of Ivan
When Ivan does eventually come ashore and starts to knock things down, we will calculate the cost of picking them up again. But Ivan is already costing our economy tremendously. The Keys were evacuated nearly a week ago as were many other areas that now have very low probablities of experiencing the storms full force. Better safe than sorry, I guess
Each of those 100s of thousands / millions of evacuations has an a opportunity cost that I can't help but believe outweighs the increase in spending due to increased fuel, food and materials sales. Furthermore I am not sure that the spending in most cases is an actual increase, but rather a redirection. If most of the people who have to evacuate are in the lower income brackets (which is nearly assured), then the money they are spending on lumber and fuel would likely have been spent on other nearly as essential things anyway.
As far as I know we have no way of knowing whether our increased ability to forecast storm tracks and disseminate those forecasts actually saves money. I do expect that it save lives and perhaps that is enough...
One final thought - What if New Orleans and the lower Mississippi take this large storm on the chin? Will this be the event that finally overwhelms the Army Corp and send the Mississippi down the Atchafalaya?
Each of those 100s of thousands / millions of evacuations has an a opportunity cost that I can't help but believe outweighs the increase in spending due to increased fuel, food and materials sales. Furthermore I am not sure that the spending in most cases is an actual increase, but rather a redirection. If most of the people who have to evacuate are in the lower income brackets (which is nearly assured), then the money they are spending on lumber and fuel would likely have been spent on other nearly as essential things anyway.
As far as I know we have no way of knowing whether our increased ability to forecast storm tracks and disseminate those forecasts actually saves money. I do expect that it save lives and perhaps that is enough...
One final thought - What if New Orleans and the lower Mississippi take this large storm on the chin? Will this be the event that finally overwhelms the Army Corp and send the Mississippi down the Atchafalaya?
September 14, 2004
tenure as defense
I learned something interesting today - A reasonable interpretation of the history of the development of tenure in the US is that is was a defensive reaction to a percieved threat during the time that disciplines and departments were evolving. During that time a layer of administration was developing beween faculty and the president of the university. And it was during this period of rapid evolution and growth that the American Association of University Professors (f. 1915) was formed.
Aside
These comments are reactions to reading Chapter 1 of Geiger's To Advance Knowledge and looking at the American Association of University Professors (AAUP) website; especially the Committee A page.
End
The percieved threat was that as universities grew and departments evolved, the legitimate sphere of faculty authority no longer encompassed the entire academic enterprise but became limited to a specific and restricted subset of that enterprise. On top of this, the primary concern of the leadership became the business of running the university rather than the intellectual affairs of its faculty and students.
My interpretation of tenure as defense then is that, in the US at least, it was invented to insulate faculty from the increasingly foriegn, and hence unpredictable (irrational?), actions of the administration. This is plainly an interpretation on my part. The AAUP, which is clearly the professional body at the center of the discussion and adjudication with respect to tenure, has as its mission the advancement of academic freedom. While state positively there is something adversarial to the tone of the AAUP's rhetoric that suggests that academic freedom needs to be protected.
This may indeed be the case; one of our founding folks (Jefferson probably) noted that, "Eternal vigalence is the price of freedom" None the less, I find it fascinating that one of the cornerstones of academia could have its roots in an adversarial move on the part of faculty and that, if this interpretation holds, tenure codifies the traditional tension between faculty and administrators in the research university.
Aside
These comments are reactions to reading Chapter 1 of Geiger's To Advance Knowledge and looking at the American Association of University Professors (AAUP) website; especially the Committee A page.
End
The percieved threat was that as universities grew and departments evolved, the legitimate sphere of faculty authority no longer encompassed the entire academic enterprise but became limited to a specific and restricted subset of that enterprise. On top of this, the primary concern of the leadership became the business of running the university rather than the intellectual affairs of its faculty and students.
My interpretation of tenure as defense then is that, in the US at least, it was invented to insulate faculty from the increasingly foriegn, and hence unpredictable (irrational?), actions of the administration. This is plainly an interpretation on my part. The AAUP, which is clearly the professional body at the center of the discussion and adjudication with respect to tenure, has as its mission the advancement of academic freedom. While state positively there is something adversarial to the tone of the AAUP's rhetoric that suggests that academic freedom needs to be protected.
This may indeed be the case; one of our founding folks (Jefferson probably) noted that, "Eternal vigalence is the price of freedom" None the less, I find it fascinating that one of the cornerstones of academia could have its roots in an adversarial move on the part of faculty and that, if this interpretation holds, tenure codifies the traditional tension between faculty and administrators in the research university.
September 13, 2004
So, what have you been up to?
time to bring this thing back to life...
From the prespectives of this blog, the last 14 months can be considered a black box, the challenge to the reader is to figure out what the inputs were, how the wiring has changed and whether it matters.
One of the outputs is that at least for the next little bit, the Earth Systems that I am likely to be fixated on will have more to do with the internal wiring of universities. In particular why are they wired the way they are? and What are the implications for any rewiring we might attempt to undertake?
Aside
I am in the process of launching myself as a consulting firm -
Earth Management Consulting: interdisciplinary solutions for evolving institutions
The bullseye audience is the set of academic institutions that sees rewiring in response to changes in the external intellectual, economic and political landscapes as a strategic part of their competitive advantage in the coming years. At the center of that bullseye are those institutions that see Earth Systems as key to that evolution. Surrounding those are institutions that want to develop other interdisciplinary topics as their foci and surround that are other kinds of knoweldge institutions (e.g. NGOs and government agencies) that also see the need to mangage and consume knowledge in new ways. (e.g. ProNatura USA)
End
The dominant theme at the moment is that I suspect that we may be going through fundamental shift in how academia is organized. I am thinking along the lines of the creation of ONR and NSF following WWII or the establishment of German model universities (Johns Hopkins and Clark) in the mid- to late 19th Century. For the moment, I am going to hold the exact nature of this shift close to my chest, but suffice it to say that if I am right, places that have a tradition of porosity across organizational boundaries are going to be in a much stronger position than those with a strong disciplinary traditions.
Pressing questions include:
Aside
Hilary says that my blog should be more like Somwhat employed. I am not sure how they are diifferent except that mine has more acronyms and the last 14 months are trapped in a black box as an exercise for the reader...
End
From the prespectives of this blog, the last 14 months can be considered a black box, the challenge to the reader is to figure out what the inputs were, how the wiring has changed and whether it matters.
One of the outputs is that at least for the next little bit, the Earth Systems that I am likely to be fixated on will have more to do with the internal wiring of universities. In particular why are they wired the way they are? and What are the implications for any rewiring we might attempt to undertake?
Aside
I am in the process of launching myself as a consulting firm -
Earth Management Consulting: interdisciplinary solutions for evolving institutions
The bullseye audience is the set of academic institutions that sees rewiring in response to changes in the external intellectual, economic and political landscapes as a strategic part of their competitive advantage in the coming years. At the center of that bullseye are those institutions that see Earth Systems as key to that evolution. Surrounding those are institutions that want to develop other interdisciplinary topics as their foci and surround that are other kinds of knoweldge institutions (e.g. NGOs and government agencies) that also see the need to mangage and consume knowledge in new ways. (e.g. ProNatura USA)
End
The dominant theme at the moment is that I suspect that we may be going through fundamental shift in how academia is organized. I am thinking along the lines of the creation of ONR and NSF following WWII or the establishment of German model universities (Johns Hopkins and Clark) in the mid- to late 19th Century. For the moment, I am going to hold the exact nature of this shift close to my chest, but suffice it to say that if I am right, places that have a tradition of porosity across organizational boundaries are going to be in a much stronger position than those with a strong disciplinary traditions.
Pressing questions include:
- Can the time necessary to implement institutional cultural change be shortened?
- How strong are the historical settings of univeristies like Johns Hopkins, North Carolina State or Arizona State?
- Can the rate evolution of univerisities match our need for new knowledge production?
Aside
Hilary says that my blog should be more like Somwhat employed. I am not sure how they are diifferent except that mine has more acronyms and the last 14 months are trapped in a black box as an exercise for the reader...
End
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